Which structural factors will support GCC consumers
Strong economic fundamentals support the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) consumer sector, likely leading to a structural outperformance over its advanced economy peers for decades.
We project an increase in consumption per capita growth based on youthful demographics. As the population ages, it enters a bracket that sees substantially higher income and spending, resulting in higher consumption per capita.
• Strong economic fundamentals support the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) consumer sector, likely leading to a structural outperformance over its advanced economy peers for decades.
• Three key factors are supporting labour supply: youthful demographics, high migration rates, and rising labour participation rates. Strong supply dynamics will ensure that the region avoids challenges caused by aging populations seen elsewhere.
• In addition to the strong labour supply, worker quality is rising. Reforms have increased educational attainment in recent decades, with potential for further improvement. This will boost productivity and earnings potential for households.
Low dependency ratios in the GCC will minimise the burden on the working-age population
