What if the move to net-zero is disorderly?
Current climate action pledges won’t contain global warming to well below 2°C in line with the Paris Agreement. If decisive action is delayed further, a disorderly scenario will likely unfold and require stronger policy action to reach net-zero emissions by 2050.
Our modelling suggests that an aggressive global carbon tax policy and limited renewable energy capacity would result in substantial economic damage. A slower rate of global warming provides some relief, but the most material environmental benefits won’t materialise until the second half of the century.
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- Late policy action comes at a significant economic cost
- Carbon tax pushes inflation higher, until a shift towards cheaper energy sources
- Recycling revenues mitigates the economic damage of transition in short term
Eurozone key themes 2024 – A fragile recovery will gain impulse
After a year of stagnating activity, the eurozone economy will continue to struggle to gain traction in the near term given multiple headwinds. But we expect a gradual recovery in 2024 that will gather momentum as consumers regain some of their lost purchasing power and financial conditions ease.Find Out More
UK Key themes 2024 – Tight policy settings weigh on growth
The UK's house price correction has been mild so far and recent data has indicated the market may be more resilient than we had thought. But we still think the downturn has some way to run.Find Out More