Weakened confidence forces building activity downwards in China

We have slightly upgraded our forecasts over the short run, with total construction work done forecast to decline 5.4% in 2023 and 2.6% in 2024 (up from a previous -5.5% and -5.1% respectively). However, we have downgraded our forecasts over the medium to long term, with total construction work done forecast to grow 4.5% p.a. over the three years to 2027 (down from a previous +7.2%).
What you will learn:
- Residential building work done is forecast to decline 10.4% in 2023 and 4.8% in 2024. The sector remains weakened by the downturn in the real estate sector. This will see activity remain at lower levels over the near term. While policy easing will help the recovery, the state induced property correction will keep activity levels more muted.
- Non-residential building work done is forecast to pare back 16.9% in 2023 and 5.2% in 2024. The decline will be led by ‘other non-residential’ and industrial building, pulled down by a cooling in external demand. Nonetheless, crucial support will stem from commercial building as a lack of new supply over recent years will see demand slowly return.
- Civil engineering work done is forecast to grow 8.4% in 2023 and 0.4% in 2024. Government investment in infrastructure projects will continue to support the ailing real estate sector.
Tags:
Related Posts

Post
Chartbook: Global Construction Outlook Q3 2023
Global construction activity is now forecast to fall 1.6% in 2023 and rebound 0.5% in 2024 to $9.6tn. China’s real estate downturn continues to dominate the global outlook. We now expect a slower recovery in both residential and non-residential building activity – and anticipate a more muted recovery in Chinese GDP over the medium term.
Find Out More
Post
Why We Need to Decarbonise the Construction Value Chain
Many major economies have committed to becoming Net Zero by 2050, but few appear to have a coherent plan to fully decarbonise its construction sector.
Find Out More
Post
Digitalisation and Modern Methods of Construction
Digitalisation and modern methods of construction will support the decarbonisation of infrastructure and built assets.
Find Out More