Research Briefing | Apr 13, 2021

Vietnam | Role as a global manufacturing hub will fuel growth

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Vietnam’s transformation into a global manufacturing hub over the past decade helped it outperform most economies in 2020 and further strengthened its share of global electronics and manufacturing exports. We forecast these trends will continue over 2021 and beyond.

What you will learn from this report:

  • Why Vietnam will account for around 4% of global electronics exports in 2025.
  • 10% tariff on textiles, telecommunications, computers, and furniture exports to the US (US$40.3bn) would cut GDP growth to an average of 6.4% over 2021-2022 versus our baseline of 7.2%. GDP levels would be US$98bn lower by the end of 2025.
  • US doesn’t have the appetite to further disrupt its own companies’ supply chains. We believe Vietnam’s strategic importance in countering China’s influence in the region will prevent any widespread action
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