US | Recovery Tracker looking good ahead of summer liftoff
The US Recovery Tracker rose 0.4ppts to 92.1 in the week ended May 14, pointing to solid momentum ahead of the summer liftoff. Four of the tracker’s six components increased, led by rapidly improving health conditions.
What you will learn:
- Ongoing vaccination progress lifted the health tracker to its highest since October, giving consumers the confidence to commute more and travel as gasoline demand climbed to a 14-month high.
- The labor market continued healing, with small-business employment on the rise, fewer layoffs, and increased job postings. Demand rose at a steady clip, driven by increased credit card spending, more restaurant outings, more hotel nights, and greater outlays on recreation, despite cooler housing activity.
- Our State Recovery Trackers signal a mild improvement in mid-May, with 34 states recording higher readings. All regional recoveries gained ground, with the East and Midwest leading the charge.
Terms of trade will lift income but challenge Australian households
Australia's terms of trade (the ratio of export prices to import prices) increased sharply through the pandemic due to a combination of strong demand and disrupted supply in markets for Australia's major commodity exports. We had anticipated a correction in the terms of trade over 2022, but the Russian invasion of Ukraine and associated volatility in commodities markets has seen the terms of trade spike again.Find Out More
Eurozone: ECB minutes indicate that July rate hike is a near-certainty
The minutes from the April ECB meeting confirm the hawkish tilt initiated a few months ago continues to gain momentum. With a majority of the council increasingly concerned about the inflation outlook, this makes an interest rate hike already in July almost certain. This should not come as a surprise, however, as recent developments render hawks' case arguably easier to make.Find Out More