Research Briefing | Mar 28, 2024

US metros to see decelerating growth in the medium term

We forecast stable GDP growth across most US metros in 2024, followed by decelerating growth over the subsequent four years. All of the top 50 metros are forecast to see real GDP growth in 2024 as well as continued but slower growth through 2028. Likewise, we forecast continued momentum in job growth for nearly all of the 50 major metros this year, but we see job gains moderating in 2025 through 2028.

What you will learn:

  • Led by their strong tech sectors, San Jose, Seattle, Austin, San Francisco, and Raleigh are forecast to lead GDP growth over the medium term. Metros we forecast will trail include Detroit, New Orleans, Cleveland, Memphis, and Buffalo.
  • In addition to the information sector, we forecast that construction will contribute much of the GDP growth over the next five years, after trailing most sectors in 2020 through 2023. Declining interest rates and higher housing starts will drive much of the GDP gains. Florida and Sunbelt metros will lead construction GDP growth over the medium term due to strong in-migration.
  • Job growth trends are more in line with population growth, as we forecast that Austin, Las Vegas, Phoenix, Orlando, and Riverside will lead over the medium term, with gains concentrated in healthcare, professional services, and leisure and hospitality. All the top 50 metros are forecast to add jobs over the 2024-2028 period, and most will see healthier office job growth after one-third of the metros suffered office job declines in 2023, including many in California.
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