Research Briefing | Dec 23, 2021

The wait for decisive news in the UK on Omicron goes on

United Kingdom | The wait for decisive news on Omicron goes on

Though the government has opted to defer a decision on introducing further restrictions until after Christmas, it seems likely that a mix of greater consumer caution and reduced mobility will ensure that the UK’s GDP falls in December.
The first financial support for businesses was announced this week. But the days of policy support going big and going early are long gone.

What you will learn:

  • Additional assistance will surely be needed if the period of disruption is extended, particularly if new restrictions force some sectors to close for a period.
  • Hospitalisations currently remain low, but they are rising sharply in London, which has been the centre of the UK’s Omicron outbreak. Early studies show a lower share of those infected with Omicron are likely to require hospital treatment compared with Delta.
  • The high case numbers have also brought widespread incidences of labour shortages. In response, the government has reduced the mandatory period of self-isolation for those testing positive from 10 days to seven, provided the infected person has returned two negative lateral flow tests, a change which should help at the margin.
Back to Resource Hub

Related research

A man holding Eurozone flag

Post

APAC Key Themes 2026: Paybacks, policy offsets and trade

We believe APAC will remain the strongest global performer in 2026. However, the growth trajectory will likely be more uneven than in past cycles.

Find Out More

Post

Japan’s fiscal policy will remain loose, which increases risks to debt sustainabilit

We've changed our fiscal outlook for Japan in our December forecast round. We now expect the new government to set a primary deficit close to that of 2024, at 2%-3% of GDP for 2025-2027, instead of restoring a balanced budget by taking advantage of strong tax revenue. We assume higher bond yields will force the government to take measures to reduce the deficit from 2028.

Find Out More
[autopilot_shortcode]