Research Briefing | Feb 16, 2024

The long-term outlook for Northern African cities

North African cities are forecast to experience some of the fastest rates of employment and population growth over the long term. GDP growth is also forecast to be near the top of the global pack, just trailing behind sub-Saharan Africa.

What you will learn:

  • We expect GDP growth to average 2.6% per year between 2024 and 2050 in North African cities, compared to 1.9% in Middle Eastern cities. Such growth will be almost on par with Asia Pacific cities but outperform the Americas and Europe.
  • Population in the region’s major cities is expected to grow by 1.2% per year, while employment will grow at 1.6% per year—faster rates than anywhere else in the world, except in sub-Saharan African cities.
  • The resident population remains very young and generally under-utilised in the labour market. With healthy rates of natural change and increasing participation in the labour market, the primary driver of strong population and employment growth will come from the local-born population of North African cities.
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