Rapid policy tightening fuels businesses’ recession fears
The July Global Risk Survey was conducted at a time when central banks in major economies were sharply raising policy rates. The potential fall-out for the global economy is prominent in our results, with 1-in-4 respondents now citing rapid policy tightening as the top near-term global economic risk.
What you will learn:
- Businesses are increasingly concerned about the impact of rapid central bank policy tightening on global growth, based on our latest survey of risk perceptions. Respondents see almost a 60% chance of the eurozone following the US into technical recession in the next 12 months.
- Tighter policy already appears to beaffecting businesses’ inflation expectations. The perceived chance of very high (6%+) world inflation next year has halved since our previous survey.
- Despite the sharp rise in inflation over the past year, the mean expectation for world inflation in the medium term has risen only marginally. But businesses see material upside risks, with a 1-in-5 chance of inflation remaining above 4% over the medium term.
Tags:
Related posts
Post
A continued commitment to unlocking the power of economics
I am both honoured and energised to step into the role of Chief Executive Officer at Oxford Economics. Having spent the last 8 years here, including 5 as Chief Global Economist, I’ve seen first-hand how our people, our clients, and our shared purpose have made Oxford Economics the trusted name it is today. As we look ahead, I want to take a moment to reflect on what defines Oxford Economics and where we’re headed next.
Find Out More
Post
Oxford Economics announces a leadership transition for the next phase of growth
Oxford Economics, the world’s leading economic forecasting and advisory firm, announced today the appointment of Innes McFee as its new Chief Executive Officer, effective 4th December.
Find Out More
Post
China and AI underpin stronger global trade outlook
Global trade is set for a stronger-than-expected rebound, supported by lower US tariffs, continued AI-driven investment, and China’s renewed export push. Our latest forecasts show upgrades to both nominal and volume trade growth in 2025–26, even as legal uncertainty surrounding US tariff mechanisms and evolving geopolitical dynamics pose risks to the outlook.
Find Out More
