Australia | Population update: migration recovery delayed
With the border closed until mid-2022, suppressed net overseas migration will limit Australia’s population growth to only 48,200 people in FY2021. It is expected to take until FY2024 to return to trend, near 375,600 people per annum.
Australia’s population outlook hinges on a fragile border reopening timeline, with further delays a downside risk to the outlook. When the border does reopen and stored demand to migrate to Australia can be realised, risk skews to the upside
Download this report to find out:
- Following the Federal Government’s mid-2022 border reopening target, it is expected to take until Q1 2023 for NOM to return to its pre-pandemic base.
- The pandemic has triggered some pronounced shifts in where people want to live, impacting the geographic distribution of population growth.
- A series of downside risks remain in play, concentrated around the timing of the border reopening. Further outbreaks, the emergence of new vaccine resilient COVID19 strains, and administrative issues could all push back the return to normalcy.
Tags:
Related Services
Post
Nowcast shows wage growth slowing sharply
Our sentiment data, developed with Penta, suggests that UK private sector wage growth slowed sharply in March and early-April. If official data mirrors our sentiment indicator, it should keep the Monetary Policy Committee on track to cut interest rates in the summer.
Find Out MorePost
The euro and depreciation – shake, shake it off
Our new forecast assumes a slower euro appreciation against the dollar over the coming years than we previously anticipated. Relative productivity, terms of trade, and the current account will likely be less supportive of the euro than we thought. In addition, a stronger stock market than initially envisaged will attract more financial flows into the US than we had expected.
Find Out More