Australia | Population update: migration recovery delayed
With the border closed until mid-2022, suppressed net overseas migration will limit Australia’s population growth to only 48,200 people in FY2021. It is expected to take until FY2024 to return to trend, near 375,600 people per annum.
Australia’s population outlook hinges on a fragile border reopening timeline, with further delays a downside risk to the outlook. When the border does reopen and stored demand to migrate to Australia can be realised, risk skews to the upside
Download this report to find out:
- Following the Federal Government’s mid-2022 border reopening target, it is expected to take until Q1 2023 for NOM to return to its pre-pandemic base.
- The pandemic has triggered some pronounced shifts in where people want to live, impacting the geographic distribution of population growth.
- A series of downside risks remain in play, concentrated around the timing of the border reopening. Further outbreaks, the emergence of new vaccine resilient COVID19 strains, and administrative issues could all push back the return to normalcy.
Finland’s growth forecast cut amid weak confidence and soaring inflation
We have lowered our 2022 GDP growth forecast for Finland to 1.5% from 1.7% last month, as weakening confidence further dampens the outlook. We expect inflation to peak higher with a greater passthrough to core prices, squeezing real incomes and denting consumption. Russia has accounted for almost 10% of Finland's goods trade, among the highest in Europe.Find Out More
Why we see eurozone inflation slowing sharply next year
We have revised our 2022 eurozone inflation forecasts sharply higher, to 6.0%, since the start of the Ukraine war, as energy and food prices began to soar and new supply bottlenecks emerged. That said, we still see inflation decelerating sharply to 1.3% in 2023, putting us below consensus. While we recognise significant risks to our views, inflation should slow to below 2% in H2 2023.Find Out More