Research Briefing | Sep 26, 2023

Opposition win would secure much-needed EU funding

The Polish parliamentary elections, scheduled for October 15, are likely to be deeply consequential for domestic policy and relations with the EU.

What you will learn:

  • However, the latest polls indicate that the electoral outcome will be a very close call. While the incumbent United Right’s (UR) chances of winning an absolute majority are slim, its probability of remaining in power by securing support from additional members of parliament is rising.
  • Investment remains the most vulnerable to such a scenario. The recent signals from UR’s politicians show that they are unwilling to fulfil the pre-agreed milestones with the EU concerning the rule of law.
  • The fiscal stance is likely to remain relatively loose despite the electoral result. The deficit will exceed 3% of GDP until at least 2026 as opposition parties are unwilling to reverse the recent income tax cuts or cut expenditures.
  • October’s elections may result in a parliament unable to form a stable government, which would lead to snap elections in early 2024.
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