MENA | OPEC+ meeting, Saudi jobless rate, Lebanon fuel prices
OPEC+ countries could agree an oil output increase of 2m b/d between August and December against the backdrop of rising oil prices. But while demand is seen reaching pre-pandemic levels in early-2022, the group will be keen to limit downside to oil prices by extending supply growth caps beyond April 2022.
What you will learn:
- The Saudi unemployment rate edged down to 11.7% in Q1, a 5-year low. Female employment rate surged to 78.8% from 75.6% in Q4 2020, though there was a decline in their participation in the workforce, showing the ongoing challenge of meeting Vision 2030 targets.
- The reduction in fuel subsidies in Lebanon and subsequent 35% hike in petrol prices will exacerbate pressure on consumers even if it temporarily alleviates fuel shortages. Only some households will receive support to compensate.
- It seems likely OPEC+ countries will taper oil production cuts starting in August in the context of the rally in oil prices and demand optimism.
Tags:
Related Services
Post
BoK’s monetary policy to tighten even as hiking cycle ends
Even without rate hikes, central banks' monetary policies can effectively tighten if the nominal neutral rate falls below the policy rate. We expect this will be the case for the Bank of Korea this year, as the gap between the policy rate and the nominal neutral rate widens.
Find Out More
Post
China: Emerging green shoots in Spring, but not out of the woods
We now incorporate a faster recovery from the post-Covid exit wave and raise our 2023 full-year GDP growth forecast to 4.5% (from 4.2% previously).
Find Out More