Most Chinese cities see higher growth in 2023 despite the challenges
We expect GDP growth across many of China’s major cities to improve in 2023 following the largely weak performances in 2022. But the near-term outlook remains tentative. Recent announcements regarding the easing of Covid-19 controls bode well for the recovery of cities’ consumer sectors but the global economic slowdown will create challenges for their manufacturing bases. Finance & tech cities will continue to show strength.
What you will learn:
- As containment measures are gradually dismantled, we would expect to see a boost in the consumer-facing sectors such as retail and hospitality sectors in the country’s major cities in 2023. But some near-term caution in China’s consumer recovery is warranted given the weak consumer sentiment moving into the new year and the potential downside risks to reopening while vaccination rates among the country’s elderly are still low.
- The outlook for China’s cities is also set against a challenging external backdrop given the general global economic slowdown expected next year. With Chinese exports forecast to contract in 2023, cities with large export-oriented manufacturing centres will feel added pressure.
- In contrast, we expect some stability in the performance of those major cities with higher exposure to finance and information & communications. These sectors have exhibited robust growth in recent years due to their resilience to lockdown measures and their place among China’s strategic growth sectors.
Tags:
Related Posts
Post
APAC Key themes 2024 – A year of living cautiously
In 2024, the main influence on Asia is likely to be a global slowdown, particularly in China and the US. Moreover, governments have limited policy space to deal with these headwinds. Other negative influences, however, are set to ease further, including domestic inflation, external pressure on interest rates, and softening semiconductor prices. Overall, we expect a bumpy year as issues become more country-specific and policy responses and economic outcomes diverge.
Find Out More
Post
The cost of US-China decoupling
Trade protectionism between the US and China has been intensifying over recent years, and this is increasingly raising concerns of an adverse economic fallout among businesses. In our latest Techonomics Talks, David Schockenhoff, Head of US Macro Consulting, examines these concerns and the potential economic fallout.
Find Out More
Post
The miracle growth story of Vietnam has further to unfold
Vietnam's GDP grew by an average rate of 7% annually in the past three decades, surpassing all its ASEAN regional peers. Although 2023 and 2024 are set to see Vietnam's weakest growth outside of Covid years, we think the pain is short-term.
Find Out More