London monitor | London to grow by 6.7%, as signs of recovery emerge
Our Oxford Economics Normality Tracker shows that London’s return to “normality” may have slowed recently. But we nevertheless forecast that GVA in London will rise by 6.7% this year, underpinned by strong growth in consumer spending as lockdown restrictions fall away.
What you will learn:
- We forecast that the fastest growth rates in 2021 will be found in Inner London boroughs (Hackney, Southwark, Newham). Overall, however, Outer London will grow faster in 2021 than Inner.
- The labour market situation remains challenging. Resident employment fell by -32,100 between September-November 2020 and December 2020-February 2021.
- House prices in London declined by -1.4% in February, the sharpest monthly drop in almost ten years.
Tags:
Related Services
Post
Nowcast shows wage growth slowing sharply
Our sentiment data, developed with Penta, suggests that UK private sector wage growth slowed sharply in March and early-April. If official data mirrors our sentiment indicator, it should keep the Monetary Policy Committee on track to cut interest rates in the summer.
Find Out More
Post
The euro and depreciation – shake, shake it off
Our new forecast assumes a slower euro appreciation against the dollar over the coming years than we previously anticipated. Relative productivity, terms of trade, and the current account will likely be less supportive of the euro than we thought. In addition, a stronger stock market than initially envisaged will attract more financial flows into the US than we had expected.
Find Out More