Research Briefing | May 13, 2021

London monitor | London to grow by 6.7%, as signs of recovery emerge

london monitor - oxford economicslondon monitor- GVA

Our Oxford Economics Normality Tracker shows that London’s return to “normality” may have slowed recently. But we nevertheless forecast that GVA in London will rise by 6.7% this year, underpinned by strong growth in consumer spending as lockdown restrictions fall away.

What you will learn:

  • We forecast that the fastest growth rates in 2021 will be found in Inner London boroughs (Hackney, Southwark, Newham). Overall, however, Outer London will grow faster in 2021 than Inner.
  • The labour market situation remains challenging. Resident employment fell by -32,100 between September-November 2020 and December 2020-February 2021.
  • House prices in London declined by -1.4% in February, the sharpest monthly drop in almost ten years.
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