Research Briefing | Jul 5, 2022

Leisure and tech sectors support US metros facing uncertainties

The most striking conundrum of current economic conditions is the contrast between robust US economic numbers – particularly consumer spending and jobs – and the headlines on inflation fears, Fed tightening, and declining stock prices. With increased uncertainty on the horizon, we have reduced our forecasts for GDP for most US metros. However, all of the top 50 are expected to see positive 2022 GDP growth with the tech-heavy metros reaping the strongest growth led by San Jose, Seattle, San Francisco, New York, and Los Angeles.

What you will learn:

  • All of the top 50 are expected to see positive job growth in 2022 led by Las Vegas, Orlando, San Francisco, Austin, and San Diego as consumer spending on leisure and travel will largely withstand inflationary pressures.
  • We forecast positive yet low GDP growth for Memphis, Indianapolis, Cincinnati and most Midwest metros. Those we forecast having the lowest 2022 job growth rates include Virginia Beach, Richmond, Cincinnati, and many in the Midwest.
  • Although we reduced our growth forecasts for these and other spending categories, recent data confirms that the pent-up demand for travel, entertainment, and eating out has endured as consumers have and will continue to swallow higher prices. Domestic travelers will return to pre-pandemic levels in 2022 in many metros, but international travelers will take longer to return.

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