Research Briefing | Jul 5, 2022

Leisure and tech sectors support US metros facing uncertainties

The most striking conundrum of current economic conditions is the contrast between robust US economic numbers – particularly consumer spending and jobs – and the headlines on inflation fears, Fed tightening, and declining stock prices. With increased uncertainty on the horizon, we have reduced our forecasts for GDP for most US metros. However, all of the top 50 are expected to see positive 2022 GDP growth with the tech-heavy metros reaping the strongest growth led by San Jose, Seattle, San Francisco, New York, and Los Angeles.

What you will learn:

  • All of the top 50 are expected to see positive job growth in 2022 led by Las Vegas, Orlando, San Francisco, Austin, and San Diego as consumer spending on leisure and travel will largely withstand inflationary pressures.
  • We forecast positive yet low GDP growth for Memphis, Indianapolis, Cincinnati and most Midwest metros. Those we forecast having the lowest 2022 job growth rates include Virginia Beach, Richmond, Cincinnati, and many in the Midwest.
  • Although we reduced our growth forecasts for these and other spending categories, recent data confirms that the pent-up demand for travel, entertainment, and eating out has endured as consumers have and will continue to swallow higher prices. Domestic travelers will return to pre-pandemic levels in 2022 in many metros, but international travelers will take longer to return.

Back to Resource Hub

Related posts

Post

US metros to see decelerating growth in the medium term

We forecast stable GDP growth across most US metros in 2024, followed by decelerating growth over the subsequent four years. All of the top 50 metros are forecast to see real GDP growth in 2024 as well as continued but slower growth through 2028.

Find Out More

Post

House price indexes rose steadily in most US metros

House prices increased in all but a handful of metros in Q4 2023 as indicated by their Federal Housing Finance Agency (FHFA) purchase-only house price indexes. However, the quarterly growth rates of the indexes decelerated in Q4 compared to Q3.

Find Out More

Post

Assessing the work-from-home impact on US office demand

The work-from-home movement has proven it has staying power. As a main driver of the structural shift in the office sector, the disruption from increased work from home is having a lasting impact on office performance. Office net operating income yields will expand significantly this year and we project office capital values will fall by 16.4% in 2023 and by 2.1% in 2024.

Find Out More