Leisure and tech sectors support US metros facing uncertainties
The most striking conundrum of current economic conditions is the contrast between robust US economic numbers – particularly consumer spending and jobs – and the headlines on inflation fears, Fed tightening, and declining stock prices. With increased uncertainty on the horizon, we have reduced our forecasts for GDP for most US metros. However, all of the top 50 are expected to see positive 2022 GDP growth with the tech-heavy metros reaping the strongest growth led by San Jose, Seattle, San Francisco, New York, and Los Angeles.
What you will learn:
- All of the top 50 are expected to see positive job growth in 2022 led by Las Vegas, Orlando, San Francisco, Austin, and San Diego as consumer spending on leisure and travel will largely withstand inflationary pressures.
- We forecast positive yet low GDP growth for Memphis, Indianapolis, Cincinnati and most Midwest metros. Those we forecast having the lowest 2022 job growth rates include Virginia Beach, Richmond, Cincinnati, and many in the Midwest.
- Although we reduced our growth forecasts for these and other spending categories, recent data confirms that the pent-up demand for travel, entertainment, and eating out has endured as consumers have and will continue to swallow higher prices. Domestic travelers will return to pre-pandemic levels in 2022 in many metros, but international travelers will take longer to return.
Assessing the work-from-home impact on US office demand
The work-from-home movement has proven it has staying power. As a main driver of the structural shift in the office sector, the disruption from increased work from home is having a lasting impact on office performance. Office net operating income yields will expand significantly this year and we project office capital values will fall by 16.4% in 2023 and by 2.1% in 2024.Find Out More
More seniors age in place and work longer across US metros
The senior population continues to migrate to Sun Belt metros, but the trend has abated as more seniors are deciding to age in place than in previous generations. Top destinations for net in-migration of those 65 and over include many locales in Florida, South Carolina, and Arizona, but others have emerged as retirement hubs.Find Out More
Most US metros to see slower growth in 2024
Most metros have had steady GDP and job growth in 2023 but will start to see quarterly declines in Q4 or Q1 2024. All of the top 50 metros are forecast to see a slowdown in GDP growth in 2024, driven by lower finance and real estate GDP more than by other sectors.Find Out More