Research Briefing | Jun 9, 2021

Eurozone | As the recovery takes off, post-Covid debates begin

Ipad Frame_Eurozone-As-the-recovery-takes-off-post-Covid-debates-begin

The eurozone is heading into a strong economic rebound this month, driven by a services sector boom as restrictions are dialled back. Services PMIs skyrocketed in May to multi-year highs in all four of the eurozone’s largest economies. Meanwhile, the manufacturing sector remains healthy.

What you will learn:

  • Headline inflation exceeded 2% in May for the first time in years, mainly due to rising energy prices, although core inflation remained below 1%.
  • Price swings are likely in the next few months as economies reopen, and the current surge in food and industrial prices will eventually passthrough to CPI inflation.
  • The EC confirmed fiscal rules will remain suspended until the end of 2022, but it’s not clear what fiscal framework will prevail after that.

Back to Resource Hub

Related Services

Post

Nowcast shows wage growth slowing sharply

Our sentiment data, developed with Penta, suggests that UK private sector wage growth slowed sharply in March and early-April. If official data mirrors our sentiment indicator, it should keep the Monetary Policy Committee on track to cut interest rates in the summer.

Find Out More

Post

The euro and depreciation – shake, shake it off

Our new forecast assumes a slower euro appreciation against the dollar over the coming years than we previously anticipated. Relative productivity, terms of trade, and the current account will likely be less supportive of the euro than we thought. In addition, a stronger stock market than initially envisaged will attract more financial flows into the US than we had expected.

Find Out More