Research Briefing | Apr 23, 2024

Amid disruption, what can US office learn from retail?

In our recent analysis, we concluded office-using jobs will be the most disrupted by artificial intelligence (AI) over the next decade. We took this analysis one step further and examined the disruption at the US county level. We identified several metros – Atlanta, Denver, New York, San Francisco, and Washington DC – that had at least one county with the highest percent of displaced workers from AI.

What you will learn:

  • Offices, already in the throes of a structural shift from hybrid work, will grapple with another technological disruption from generative AI. Office demand will be challenged across the US, but more acutely in the markets we targeted from our county-level analysis.
  • Retail, which has dealt with disruption from technology, may provide clues and lessons learned that can be utilized by offices to minimize the negative impact.
  • Adapting to the e-commerce disruption meant addressing surplus retail space. Persistent vacant space will be a drag on performance over the next several years as offices adjust to current and future technological disruptions.
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