US | A post-pandemic productivity resurgence
We expect a mix of cyclical and structural factors will power above-trend productivity growth in the US in the post-Covid era. These factors include a strong investment cycle, increased business dynamism, faster technology adoption, and lasting remote work.
What you will learn:
- Rising productivity growth during the pandemic has mostly reflected a spike in capital intensity and labor quality as hours worked collapsed and the composition of the workforce shifted toward higher-skill workers.
- Technology adoption will also favor the substitution of more productive capital for labor.
- We anticipate limited productivity scarring from the pandemic. A breakdown of TFP reveals that industries most at risk of scarring are high-contact services that have low levels of productivity.
Tags:
Related Services
Post
BoK’s monetary policy to tighten even as hiking cycle ends
Even without rate hikes, central banks' monetary policies can effectively tighten if the nominal neutral rate falls below the policy rate. We expect this will be the case for the Bank of Korea this year, as the gap between the policy rate and the nominal neutral rate widens.
Find Out More
Post
China: Emerging green shoots in Spring, but not out of the woods
We now incorporate a faster recovery from the post-Covid exit wave and raise our 2023 full-year GDP growth forecast to 4.5% (from 4.2% previously).
Find Out More