Research Briefing | May 25, 2021

US | A post-pandemic productivity resurgence

A post-pandemic productivity resurgence - iPad

We expect a mix of cyclical and structural factors will power above-trend productivity growth in the US in the post-Covid era. These factors include a strong investment cycle, increased business dynamism, faster technology adoption, and lasting remote work.

What you will learn:

  • Rising productivity growth during the pandemic has mostly reflected a spike in capital intensity and labor quality as hours worked collapsed and the composition of the workforce shifted toward higher-skill workers.
  • Technology adoption will also favor the substitution of more productive capital for labor. 
  • We anticipate limited productivity scarring from the pandemic. A breakdown of TFP reveals that industries most at risk of scarring are high-contact services that have low levels of productivity.

Back to Resource Hub

Related Services

Office building in London

Post

High debt costs suggest European office price correction

Our analysis suggests a 10% correction is needed on average for the major office markets in Europe to compensate for the higher cost of debt, with prime yields required to soften by 10bps-75bps to generate a low-risk interest coverage ratio at a reasonable LTV.

Find Out More

Post

Why an ageing population doesn’t mean soaring inflation

What’s the future for inflation? Joachim Nagel, the new president of Germany's central bank, believes the rapidly ageing global population will play a key role – ramping up pressure on prices in the medium term. While we agree slowing labour supply will stifle output growth, in his recent discussion Nagel failed to fully consider the demand side of the argument.

Find Out More