Research Briefing | May 25, 2021

US | A post-pandemic productivity resurgence

A post-pandemic productivity resurgence - iPad

We expect a mix of cyclical and structural factors will power above-trend productivity growth in the US in the post-Covid era. These factors include a strong investment cycle, increased business dynamism, faster technology adoption, and lasting remote work.

What you will learn:

  • Rising productivity growth during the pandemic has mostly reflected a spike in capital intensity and labor quality as hours worked collapsed and the composition of the workforce shifted toward higher-skill workers.
  • Technology adoption will also favor the substitution of more productive capital for labor. 
  • We anticipate limited productivity scarring from the pandemic. A breakdown of TFP reveals that industries most at risk of scarring are high-contact services that have low levels of productivity.

Back to Resource Hub

Related Services

Post

Chartbook: The largest US warehousing and logistics metro markets will lead the sector’s revival over the medium term

Industrial property has delivered higher returns than all other property types over the last few years. We forecast that this trend will continue despite the contraction in the warehousing sector.

Find Out More

Post

What Trump 2.0 would mean for European growth

A second Trump presidency could have a moderate impact on European growth based on our simulation of his proposed policies. In the most extreme protectionist scenario, the eurozone economy would be 0.4% smaller than in our baseline forecast by 2029.

Find Out More