Research Briefing | May 25, 2021

US | A post-pandemic productivity resurgence

A post-pandemic productivity resurgence - iPad

We expect a mix of cyclical and structural factors will power above-trend productivity growth in the US in the post-Covid era. These factors include a strong investment cycle, increased business dynamism, faster technology adoption, and lasting remote work.

What you will learn:

  • Rising productivity growth during the pandemic has mostly reflected a spike in capital intensity and labor quality as hours worked collapsed and the composition of the workforce shifted toward higher-skill workers.
  • Technology adoption will also favor the substitution of more productive capital for labor. 
  • We anticipate limited productivity scarring from the pandemic. A breakdown of TFP reveals that industries most at risk of scarring are high-contact services that have low levels of productivity.

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