South Africa: Elections 2024 | ‘ANC & friends’ election scenario
This Research Briefing sets out the first of four scenarios for South Africa’s general election on May 29. In this scenario, the ANC wins over 46% of the vote share at the national level, and forms a government by working with small, constituency-based parties.
What you will learn:
- The deal requires no drastic move away from the ANC’s policy direction.
- Markets have already priced in this outcome, and asset prices do not move much in response.
- The macro picture is affected by supply issues more than politics.
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