Industry Forecast Highlights: Past rate hikes dampen prospects for industrial production until 2025
We expect global industrial production to grow by 2.6% this year, up from 1.8% in 2023. Our view remains that value-added industrial production bottomed out last year and is on course for a gradual recovery.
What you will learn:
- In Europe, industrial production is not expected to pick up markedly until late next year.
- In the US, capital goods sectors such as mechanical and electrical engineering continue to grapple with weak demand due to higher interest rates. Solid growth in the automotive and high-tech sectors provides some offset.
- China’s weak domestic consumption will cool momentum during H2, but overall industrial growth in 2024 will be solid.
- Changes to our views on productivity have prompted adjustments to our long-term industrial forecasts. In the US, the impact of generative AI is expected to provide a significant boost to productivity growth.
Tags:
Related Resources
Post
Australia’s Infrastructure Outlook: Big Shifts, Bigger Challenges
Australia’s infrastructure landscape is shifting fast, driven by new investment trends, emerging asset classes and growing capacity constraints. This outlook explores the major changes ahead and what industry and government must do to navigate the decade effectively.
Find Out More
Post
Peak tariff impact on industry still to come
In 2026, we anticipate global industrial value-added output to grow just 1.9%, the slowest pace of growth since the global financial crisis.
Find Out More
Post
Roadblocks to China’s chip self-sufficiency dream
China is unlikely to achieve full chip self-sufficiency any time soon because of high technological hurdles in producing advanced manufacturing equipment and materials. The self-sufficiency target now stretches well beyond actual fabrication to include the entire chip supply chain as China struggles to acquire necessary input and machinery into the production process.
Find Out More
