APAC | ASEAN growth tracker indicates weak start to Q3
Our ASEAN-6 growth tracker, which includes Indonesia, Malaysia, the Philippines, Thailand, Singapore, and Vietnam, points to a weak start to Q3. Following a gradual pick-up in Q1 and a substantial rebound in Q2 due to favourable base effects, growth slowed to 6.4% y/y in July from 8% y/y in June.
What you will learn from this report:
- Our growth tracker confirms that economic momentum slowed for ASEAN-6 economies in July. We expect growth to deteriorate further in the near term as tight restrictions in several ASEAN economies will weigh on activity.
- Exports and industrial production continued to contribute positively to our tracker, but to a lesser extent than earlier this year. Retail sales dragged on growth across the region in July after a brief rebound.
- We are comfortable with our Q3 growth forecast, which currently lies below our growth tracker’s July outcome. We expect the tracker to weaken further in August, bringing it closer to our Q3 forecast. We think risks are still tilted to the downside given the ongoing pandemic and low vaccination coverage across most of the region.
Tags:
Related Services
Post
Nowcast shows wage growth slowing sharply
Our sentiment data, developed with Penta, suggests that UK private sector wage growth slowed sharply in March and early-April. If official data mirrors our sentiment indicator, it should keep the Monetary Policy Committee on track to cut interest rates in the summer.
Find Out More
Post
The euro and depreciation – shake, shake it off
Our new forecast assumes a slower euro appreciation against the dollar over the coming years than we previously anticipated. Relative productivity, terms of trade, and the current account will likely be less supportive of the euro than we thought. In addition, a stronger stock market than initially envisaged will attract more financial flows into the US than we had expected.
Find Out More