US | A post-pandemic productivity resurgence
We expect a mix of cyclical and structural factors will power above-trend productivity growth in the US in the post-Covid era. These factors include a strong investment cycle, increased business dynamism, faster technology adoption, and lasting remote work.
What you will learn:
- Rising productivity growth during the pandemic has mostly reflected a spike in capital intensity and labor quality as hours worked collapsed and the composition of the workforce shifted toward higher-skill workers.
- Technology adoption will also favor the substitution of more productive capital for labor.
- We anticipate limited productivity scarring from the pandemic. A breakdown of TFP reveals that industries most at risk of scarring are high-contact services that have low levels of productivity.
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