欧元区： 红海中断造成损害的迹象甚微
红海航运中断对欧元区经济的影响仍然有限，这与我们的基线观点一致。 我们最新的欧元区供应压力指标表明，供应压力在 2023 年出现一段时间的缓解后已恢复正常。
你将了解到什么：
- 在最初的评估中，我们假定受影响航线的运费将上涨约200%，并在此水平上稳定6个月。 令人鼓舞的是，运费率已从1月份的峰值略有回落。 此外，早期的价格和企业调查数据表明，到目前为止，负面影响有限且分散。
- 鉴于对国内价格的传导缓慢，我们预计干扰的影响将在年底达到顶峰。 但能源价格下跌和需求低迷带来的更广泛的通货紧缩压力意味着，我们预计商品通胀率将保持在低位，而这种干扰不应妨碍欧洲央行降息。
- 不过，不利风险并未消散。 到目前为止，我们还没有看到任何明显的迹象表明，投入品的缺失会导致供应中断或大面积停产，但这些情况可能会在以后出现。 同样，虽然大多数航运公司现在都避开红海，但袭击升级将对欧元区的产出和价格产生负面连锁反应。
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