Our composite sovereign risk tool provides a rigorous and transparent framework to measure the vulnerability of 166 countries to a sovereign crisis or distress. The indicator provides significant added value over sovereign credit ratings in predicting probabilities of default and is statistically proven to be a leading indicator for credit ratings.
What do you get
Detailed breakdowns of key economic, industry, social and environmental indicators.
Highlights sovereign risk developments across the EM space and uncover valuable insights.
Spreadsheet-based analytical indicator
Allows easy comparison of sovereign risk and its drivers across countries, regions and time.
Full client support to answer questions about our rating and forecasts.
Few tools exist to help investors, asset managers, corporates and banks to monitor and manage their diverse sovereign risks systematically. Our tool fills this gap.
We use both established international data sources and Oxford Economics one-year-ahead forecasts for 166 countries, and present risk as a score from 1 to 10 (where 10 is high risk).
Proven track record
Developed by market leading experts and thoroughly back tested, our tool has notable success in predicting the likelihood of a sovereign default or a distress episode.
To best predict sovereign risk, we include innovative measures of imbalances, such as risk-weighted public debt, which differentiates between the risk profiles of debt holders.
Sovereign Risk Tool
A rigorous and transparent framework to measure the vulnerability of 166 countries to a sovereign crisis or a sovereign distress
“Engaging the service has brought nothing but benefits to us.”
Resources and events
Rising risk of a higher inflation regime for global economy
Why the Turkish lira scheme may do more harm than good
Key themes for Latin America in 2022: stagflation risk will test central banks
A framework for evaluating EM currencies’ fair value
Air travel recovery to resume in 2022 post-Omicron
UK Outlook: How many times will the MPC hike in 2022?
Has Asia’s inflation peaked?
The transformation of Japan from a goods to capital exporter
Ukraine’s sovereign Eurobonds are a bargain despite risks
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