Research Briefing | Jul 12, 2023

The odds of a soft landing continue to improve

Feb/Mar 2024

Each month Oxford Economics’ team of 300 economists and analysts updates our baseline forecast for 200+ countries using our innovative Global Economic Model. Fully linking individual country models through global assumptions about trade volume and prices, competitiveness, capital flows, interest and exchange rates, and commodity prices, our model provides a rigorous and consistent structure for forecasting and understanding the impact of economic shocks. Below is just the top-level summary of our analysis of the latest economic developments.

  • We have nudged up our world GDP growth forecast for 2024 by 0.1ppt to 2.4% and left our 2025 growth forecast unchanged at 2.6%.
  • This would be consistent with a soft economic landing for the global economy, which is no mean feat after the aggressive policy rate hikes in 2022 and 2023.
  • However, it still would represent weak growth even by the standards of the 2010s.

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