Research Briefing | Apr 10, 2024

The Federal Reserve’s policy pivot will likely be delayed

May/June 2024

Each month Oxford Economics’ team of 300 economists and analysts updates our baseline forecast for 200+ countries using our innovative Global Economic Model. Fully linking individual country models through global assumptions about trade volume and prices, competitiveness, capital flows, interest and exchange rates, and commodity prices, our model provides a rigorous and consistent structure for forecasting and understanding the impact of economic shocks. Below is just the top-level summary of our analysis of the latest economic developments.

  • We still anticipate a steady but unspectacular recovery in global economic activity this year.
  • Our world GDP growth forecasts are little changed at 2.6% in 2024 and 2.8% in 2025
  • While recent inflation data have given some policymakers pause for thought, we still expect the ECB and Bank of England to cut policy rates in June, while the Federal Reserve now looks likely to follow in September.

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