Geopolitics unlikely to derail solid growth outlook

Each month Oxford Economics’ team of 450 economists and analysts updates our baseline forecast for 200+ countries using our innovative Global Economic Model. Fully linking individual country models through global assumptions about trade volume and prices, competitiveness, capital flows, interest and exchange rates, and commodity prices, our model provides a rigorous and consistent structure for forecasting and understanding the impact of economic shocks.

Below is just the top-level summary of our analysis of the latest economic developments.

• Slight upward revisions to world GDP in 2025 have mechanically raised our forecast for growth in 2026 by 0.1ppt to 2.8%. 
• But the broad story is of an unchanged outlook – after a soft end to 2025, we expect a resumption of steady but unspectacular GDP growth this year.
• The likely weak finish to 2025 for the global economy can be attributed to slowdowns in the US and China. 

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