In the media | 21 May 2024

The Times: Trump presidency could affect Britain more than our own election

An American trade war with China and other countries may have wide-ranging effects on the global economy — and derail the UK recovery. Jamie Thompson, Head of Macro Scenarios at Oxford Economics delves into this topic and various scenarios under a Trump presidency.

Read the full opinion piece below:

A hat from Trump's US presidential elections campaign

To explore our latest research, consulting reports and blog posts from our team of experts, on the topics that matter to you, check out Resource Hub – Oxford Economics.

You may be interested in

What Trump 2.0 would mean for European growth

A second Trump presidency could have a moderate impact on European growth based on our simulation of his proposed policies. In the most extreme protectionist scenario, the eurozone economy would be 0.4% smaller than in our baseline forecast by 2029.

Find Out More
Second Trump presidency poses a risk to US industry

The near-term outlook for US industry is expected to be relatively steady. However, the results of the upcoming election could have significant implications for the medium-term outlook for US industry.

Find Out More
Prospects for policymaking in a divided government

We subjectively assign a greater probability of a divided government after the 2024 elections rather than one that is fully controlled by Republicans or Democrats. After considering the prospects for policymaking under a Republican trifecta, we modeled the macroeconomic impact of a divided government with either of the two leading presidential candidates at the helm.

Find Out More
Biden’s new China tariffs are more symbolic bark than bite

The Biden administration's additional tariffs on China are essentially a rounding error for inflation and GDP, carrying no implications for monetary policy. However, Biden’s decision to implement additional tariffs on China is another indication that US industry policy is shifting toward the stick approach, such as more use of tariffs.

Find Out More