Recent Release | 16 Mar 2023

Global Construction Futures

Economic Consulting Team

Oxford Economics

Global construction work done will grow over US$4.2 trillion over the next 15 years

Global Construction Futures provides forecasts for the global construction industry and forecasts for all major construction markets globally to 2037.

Construction work done up from US$9.7 trillion in 2022 to US$13.9 trillion in 2037—driven by superpower construction markets China, the US and India.
Growth globally is driven by huge opportunities in the global green economy.
China growth resumes more steeply in 2025 after real estate challenges.
Slump in US residential work done underway to blow US$150 billion hole in US construction market and slow growth outlook.
India forecast to be the fastest growing construction superpower.
UK set to be fastest growing for construction work done in Western Europe.
Central bank mismanagement of interest rates could cause a cumulative fall of US$2 trillion globally for construction by 2027 relative to our baseline forecast – knocking off almost 1% from global growth.

Key findings

US$4.2t

Growth in global construction work done over next 15 years

US$13.9t

expected in 2037, driven by construction markets in China, US and India.

70%

of all construction work done over next 15 years by the world’s top 10 construction markets

4

fastest growing construction markets over the next 15 years will be Philippines, Vietnam, Malaysia and Indonesia

Key market drivers identified

US Inflation Reduction Act
Growth in strategic inward investment, manufacturing and mega infrastructure projects, aimed at decarbonisation and supported by the US Inflation Reduction Act, is helping drive growth from next year in the US construction market – the second largest in the world.
China opening-up
With the relaxation of China’s Zero-Covid policy, the construction market in China is expected to resume a steeper growth from 2025, after a year of declining real volumes and recovery in 2024. China faces longer-term structural challenges, such as a declining population and slower urbanisation, which will also challenge growth for construction over the longer term.
Russia-Ukraine conflict
There is expected to be heightened growth in Eastern Europe over the next 15 years, as an estimated US$1 trillion reconstruction effort will need to start when the Russia-Ukraine conflict ends, and with rebuilding after the devastating earthquakes in Turkey.

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About the team

Our construction and industry teams are world leaders in quantitative economic and industry analysis, working with clients around the globe and across sectors to build models, forecast markets and evaluate interventions using state-of-the-art techniques. Lead economists on this project are:

Graham Robinson

Global Infrastructure and Construction Lead

Jeremy Leonard

Managing Director of Global Industry Services

Nicholas Fearnley

Head of Global Construction Forecasting

Construction Futures 2023 press release

1 out of 2

“The Aon Global Construction and Infrastructure Leadership Team was delighted to have worked in close partnership with Oxford Economics in developing Global Construction Futures – it is a powerful and analytical forecast and view of the future of construction and infrastructure. Global Construction Futures is a must read for all leaders and others across the sector.”

James MacNeal, Global Head of Construction and Infrastructure

2 out of 2

“Gleeds was pleased to have been a part of Global Construction Futures – it is a must-read for any leader or organisation with a footprint in the construction sector and gives a clear analysis of the key drivers for growth in global construction and infrastructure.”

Graham Harle, Chief Executive Officer

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