The emergence of the Omicron variant at the year-end, and record-breaking infection rates, brought back mobility restrictions which paused recovery.
2021 data informs estimates of a 62% decrease in tourist arrivals to Europe over 2019 levels, although final data are not yet available. Economic recovery is expected to continue in 2022, but Omicron means growth will be slightly more subdued, at least for the first quarter.
The travel outlook for Europe remains positive, with demand projected to be just 20% below pre-pandemic levels in 2022, fuelled by domestic and intra-European travel demand. Domestic travel is expected to exceed pre-pandemic peaks this year, while rapid intra-regional demand will drive improvement in international.
About the team
Our consulting team at Tourism Economics are the world’s leading analysts of the global tourism and travel sector. They combine their expert insight with our state-of-the-art economic models and tools to answer the crucial questions facing our clients. Lead consultants on the project were:
Director of Tourism Economics, EMEA
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Director of Tourism Economics, EMEA
David Goodger is Director of Tourism Economics, Europe. He has been instrumental in developing the global model of tourism flows and spending, which covers 185 origins and destinations, and he continues to manage the regular forecast updates. He also maintains an active role in new product development and consultancy work.
David Goodger is a Director within Tourism Economics, and primarily concentrates on tourism demand forecasting and market sizing. He has also taken an active role in further model development for specific purposes, with an emphasis on examining the economic contributions of particular sectors and the impact of different policies. He has conducted groundbreaking analysis of the business travel sector for the WTTC and the US Travel Association which estimates the return on investment of corporate spending on travel and he has developed models to define destination marketing allocations.
Since joining Oxford Economics in 2000, David Goodger has been involved in a wide range of forecasting and modeling activities. He has been part of the macroeconomic forecasting and the industrial forecasting teams contributing to both regular reports and specific client studies as well as assisting in the development of detailed forecasting and simulation models.
David was educated at the University of Bristol, England, where he gained a first class degree in Economics with Statistics; and at the London School of Economics and Political Science, England, where he graduated with an MSc in Econometrics and Mathematical Economics.
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