Research Briefing | Jun 29, 2022

Businesses see tighter policy as the greatest economic risk

Businesses see tighter policy as the greatest economic risk

Risks to the global economy remain skewed to the downside, based on our latest survey of risk perceptions. But businesses no longer see war as the key threat to the economic outlook.

Businesses’ key concern is now an advanced economy recession in which higher inflation and rapid central bank tightening squeeze real incomes and weigh heavily on property and financial markets. With central banks changing the way they react to economic conditions, respondents see more than a one in four chance of this scenario materialising.

Moderate expansion is viewed as the most likely outcome in the near term, however. The mean expectation for world GDP growth remains well below our baseline forecast, by around 0.7ppt for 2022. At the same time, businesses perceive a reduced chance of global economic contraction, as well as a fall in the odds of strong growth this year.

Business sentiment appears to vary markedly across sectors and regions. A greater proportion of respondents from financial institutions and the professional and business services sector view risks as heavily skewed to the downside. By contrast, those businesses focused on the Asia Pacific region perceive a relatively high chance of more rapid global economic growth.

The survey was completed by 167 businesses from 13-22 June

What you will learn:

  • Why most businesses report becoming more negative about global growth prospects

  • Why moderate growth is seen as most likely for 2022 

  • Growth expectations for 2023
Back to Resource Hub

Related posts


London Monitor: A possible uptick in June, but the outlook is unfavourable

Some indicators suggest an uptick in the London economy in June, but underlying drivers are not at all favourable, with 2022’s second half and 2023 likely to be tough for London, as for the UK as a whole.

Find Out More
construction scaffolds


Global construction costs to remain high in 2023

The global rebound in construction activity is set to continue over the coming years, supported by a wave of publicly funded infrastructure projects. This investment is coming at a time when global supply chain disruptions are hampering the delivery of construction materials, and tight labour markets are limiting the supply of labour.

Find Out More
London Monitor: Growth continues but the economy lacks vigour


London Monitor: London’s economy is slowing

Recent evidence clearly shows the London economy slowing. We have trimmed our forecast for GVA growth in 2022 to 4.1% and expect only 1.8% in 2023.

Find Out More