Barclays Sees Senegal’s Debt Burden Easing After Data is Rebased

The odds of our baseline view of most US tariffs on Canada and Mexico being removed by mid-2026 are decreasing. In this report, we analyze plausible USMCA scenarios.

Global tradeflows remain under pressure despite easing tariff tensions. Recent US–China agreements reduce select import taxes and support China’s 2026 outlook, yet US imports continue to fall and supply chains pivot toward Asia and Europe. Containerised trade is set to expand, while bulk shipments soften alongside weaker industrial demand.

Trade disruptions spread across autos and pharma sectors, with EU tariff exemptions giving Europe a competitive edge amid global slowdown.

China’s exports have adapted, rather than retreated, under higher US tariffs. It will be difficult for businesses and consumers to decouple from Chinese exports or China-linked supply chains.