In the media | 21 Oct 2024

A rise in protectionism following the US election could trigger a re-ordering of world trade

Scott Livermore

Chief Economist, Oxford Economics Middle East, and Managing Director

Oxford Economics’ Global Scenarios Services has modelled the outcomes of these two scenarios.

We find that a Trump win would impact Gulf trade and oil markets, while a Harris presidency will provide a boost to the US economy over the next couple of years through the expansion of social benefits but is unlikely to materially alter the economic outlook for the GCC. An alternative outcome is a full-blown Trump presidency in which he not only wins the White House and Republicans regain control of Congress, but a re-elected President Trump follows through in full on his election pledges.

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