UK Seafarer Projections
This report estimates the demand and supply for seafarers over the next ten years. It then compares the demand and supply forecasts to estimate the ‘gap’ between supply and demand for officers and ratings at sea as well as former seafarers employed in roles onshore. This gap is known as the ‘excess demand’ which exists where the industry’s requirement for seafarers is greater than the number of seafarers available to fill such roles. Where the supply of seafarers exceeds industry’s demand for such seafarers there is ‘excess supply’.
We identify a shortage (or ‘excess demand’) of around 3,000 to 4,000 deck and engine officers in most years of our forecast period. Excess demand for deck and engine ratings is estimated to increase throughout the forecast period to reach a shortage of around 2,000 by 2026. If we instead assume that the supply of non-UK seafarers continues to grow in line with historic rates, then excess demand is eliminated.
Oxford Economics Research Team
Our Economics Impact team produces original, evidence-based research made accessible to decision-makers and opinion leaders. Principals for this project included:
Andrew P. Goodwin
Associate Director, Economic ImpactEmail