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China: Building and Construction in China 2021-2025: December 2021 Update

Total construction work done is forecast to grow 8.6% in 2021 (down from a previous +8.7%). Growth in activity is expected to soften in 2022 (+2.9%) as new residential building projects entering the pipeline thins. The tightening of real estate regulatory and credit policies as well as the default of Evergrande and other high-profile developers, has amplified the slowdown in the real estate sector. The downturn is expected to continue into H1 2022, with a steeper decline mitigated by further policy easing and government support, before recovering in H2. There remains significant downside risks to the outlook should there be a further increase in developers defaulting. In addition, the spread of the highly contagious Omicron Covid variant could also hamper activity, particularly given China’s zero-tolerance approach. Total construction work done is forecast to grow 7.6% pa over the three years to 2025.

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