Global Macro Service > Research Briefings > United States

No wage-price spiral, but there are three Ps to monitor

The severe mismatch between the supply and demand of labor across the US job market has led to a rapid increase in wage growth. Our diffusion index of wage growth points to sustained labor cost pressure in the near term. However, our assessment of three key factors – productivity, pricing power, and labor force participation – suggests a wage-price spiral isn’t imminent.

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