Global Macro Service > Research Briefings > United States

Not the time to play chicken with the debt ceiling

Congress must raise the debt limit by mid-October to prevent a Treasury default that would throw the economy back into recession, provoke significant damage to household and business confidence, and send financial markets into a tailspin. We think the worst-case scenario will be avoided, but partisan politics may push action on the debt limit uncomfortably close to the edge.

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