Global Macro Service > Research Briefings > United States

Where are we in the business cycle?

Our analysis of key economic indicators suggests on balance the economy is in the mid-cycle phase of the business cycle. We believe the expansion has legs to run in spite of being past peak growth and policy accommodation. This provides ongoing solid underpinning for corporate profits, albeit with more subdued equity market returns. It also signals we have not reached the peak in long-term rates. Still, there are downside risks on the horizon, including the Delta variant.

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