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How central bank sentiment shifts move bond markets

Using our proprietary machine learning-based sentiment analysis, we find that of the big four central banks, the US Federal Reserve and the European Central Bank are both changing their monetary policy narrative towards more optimistic tones. They’re now at about half the level of optimism last seen just before the pandemic broke out. While the US 10-year government bond market seems to have priced that in, the eurozone’s seems to have not.

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