Global Macro Service > Research Briefings > United Kingdom

Positive news points to MPC sticking with no change

Reflecting recent positive developments, we think the MPC will vote unanimously to keep policy on hold in its May meeting. It will likely also push up its forecast for GDP growth. Activity appears to be emerging from the recent lockdown in less-bad shape than the committee anticipated. And the latest step in reopening the economy in mid-April looks to have triggered a surge in spending. News that Andrew Haldane will leave the MPC in June means the committee will lose its most bullish member. But in our view, Haldane’s departure doesn’t shift the dial on what’s likely to be a long period of monetary policy inaction.

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