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Australia’s COVID-19 vaccine rollout: Risks and rewards

The Australian government’s COVID-19 vaccine rollout is scheduled to begin in late February 2021. The vaccine will be rolled out in stages, prioritising at-risk segments of the population including frontline workers and the elderly, inoculating the rest of the adult population by the end of October 2021. We expect successful vaccine delivery to allow for further removal of trading and travel restrictions, which will boost economic activity. These effects will be strongest for the tourism industry; the removal of uncertainty around domestic border closures is expected to release pent-up travel demand. In line with the government’s announcements, we are much more cautious about the return of international travel and expect to see a protracted recovery.

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