Global Macro Service > Global Macro Themes And Asset Views Chartbooks
Global Macro Themes and Asset Views Chartbook, November 2020
In our global macro chartbook for November, we summarise our views on current global themes and asset markets, and link to our research highlights over the last month. With many economies imposing tighter restrictions, we have cut out 2021 global GDP growth forecast from 5.2% to 4.9%. This is despite the positive recent vaccine news, which has shifted the balance of risks around our baseline forecast. The vaccine will take time to produce and distribute in large quantities, supporting our baseline view that large-scale and permanent reductions in restrictions are only likely to begin around mid-2021.
Highlights of this month’s global research include our analysis of funding conditions in EMs, which concludes that a large-scale EM funding crisis will likely be averted this year and that timid fiscal responses to the pandemic threaten to entrench weak demand and low inflation. We have also adjusted our long-term forecasts to 2050 to incorporate an additional one degree rise in the world temperature; we expect cool countries in the Northern Hemisphere to benefit, whereas relatively warm countries in Latin America, Africa, and Asia will be negatively affected.
In the US, the Republican's hold on the Senate will prevent Joe Biden from implementing his fiscal agenda fully, but we expect a short-term fiscal relief package around year-end. In the eurozone, re-imposition of stringent containment measures in the bloc's largest economies means that we expect GDP to fall in Q4, although the decline won't be nearly as large as that seen in H1.
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