Country Economic Forecasts > China

Q3 growth of 4.9% was a strong improvement on Q2, but below our expectation, so we have revised down our 2020 growth forecast to 2% from 2.3%

China’s GDP grew 4.9% y/y in Q3, up from 3.2% in Q2, showing that the economic recovery from Covid-19 continues. But growth was lower than our forecast of 5.3% y/y, reflecting slowing infrastructure investment growth and lingering softness in consumption and corporate investment. While we think that the recovery is on a reasonably firm footing and will continue in Q4, we expect its sequential momentum to ease, led by a softening of investment momentum as credit growth decelerates. The slight disappointment in Q3 leads us to nudge down our 2020 GDP growth forecast to 2%, from 2.3% previously. We keep our forecast for 2021 GDP growth unchanged at 7.6%.

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