Country Economic Forecasts > China
China’s GDP grew 4.9% y/y in Q3, up from 3.2% in Q2, showing that the economic recovery from Covid-19 continues. But growth was lower than our forecast of 5.3% y/y, reflecting slowing infrastructure investment growth and lingering softness in consumption and corporate investment. While we think that the recovery is on a reasonably firm footing and will continue in Q4, we expect its sequential momentum to ease, led by a softening of investment momentum as credit growth decelerates. The slight disappointment in Q3 leads us to nudge down our 2020 GDP growth forecast to 2%, from 2.3% previously. We keep our forecast for 2021 GDP growth unchanged at 7.6%.
To read the full briefing please
If you are not a subscriber, request a free trial of our Country Economics Forecasts by filling out the form below