Global Macro Service > Research Briefings > Global

Calibrating a medium-term economic comeback from Covid

Our medium-term forecasts are for global GDP to fall short of pre-crisis trend growth by around 4% by Q4 2024 and with risks skewed to the downside [we see a slightly smaller shortfall relative to our pre-crisis baseline forecasts]. We find this to be the most plausible path when benchmarked against preceding crises, theoretical studies, and an assessment of transmission channels.

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