Country Economic Forecasts > South Africa

South Africa: Outlook remains grim after record quarterly contraction in Q2

Economic output dropped by 17.1% y-o-y in 2020 Q2, while GDP for the first half of 2020 came in 8.7% lower than that in H1 2019. Nine out of 10 sectors recorded contractions in Q2, with agriculture the only sector recording growth. The considerable GDP contraction came in close to our estimate, and all eyes are now on the recovery. The latest industrial sector figures give the first hard-data signs of the technical bounce-back in Q3, but activity remains weak when compared with a year earlier. We expect GDP to contract by 8.9% this year before recovering by 4.9% in 2021.

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