Executive Briefings > United States

US Executive Briefing – September 2020

The economic recovery is well underway, but its speed and durability are now in question with fiscal aid dwindling, flu season fast approaching and election uncertainty rising. Following a 10.2% peak-to-trough GDP contraction, we believe the economy will have recouped about two thirds of its output loss at the end of Q3. This should translate into a 3.7% GDP contraction in 2020. However, with a health solution still not available and the economic rebound looking fragile, we believe real GDP will advance only 3.7% in 2021, with risks tilted to the downside, especially in the absence of further fiscal stimulus.

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