Global Macro Service > Research Briefings > United States

Employment preview – Backward slide in July

After a strong initial bounce in May and June, the labor market recovery likely stalled in July. We estimate that nonfarm payrolls declined 280,000 in July, following a cumulative gain of 7.5 million in the two prior months. While not a large pullback, the July decline would underscore that the foundation to this recovery is cracking amid the recent surge in coronavirus cases nationwide.

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