Global Macro Service > Research Briefings > United States

Pocketbooks point to a historic defeat for Trump

With the economy still suffering from the Global Coronavirus Recession (GCR) in early fall, our state-based and national election models both anticipate President Donald Trump will lose the popular vote. An unemployment rate above its global financial crisis peak, household income nearly 6% below its pre-virus levels, and transitory deflation will make the economy a nearly insurmountable obstacle for Trump come November.

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