Global Macro Service > Key Global Themes > Global

Global Macro Themes and Asset Views Chartbook, May 2020

In our global macro chartbook for May, we summarise our views on current global themes and asset markets, and link to our research highlights over the last month. We have slashed our global GDP growth forecast for this year to -4.8%, the weakest rate since WWII.

We highlight our research on the impact that the ongoing global coronavirus outbreak will have on the global economy. We provide a range of scenarios to the upside and downside as uncertainty around our baseline is very high; the range of plausible outcomes reflects the sizeable downside risks associated with the magnitude of the downturn. A contentious issue of debate is the impact on inflation that this epidemic will cause, and we set out our analysis as to why we expect disinflation pressures will win out.

Oxford Economics has conducted extensive regional analysis on the impacts of coronavirus and the effectiveness of policy responses to combat this recession. Emerging market central banks are pursuing QE-style measures to preserve financial stability, but we think the risk of QE-led inflation overshoots in most EMs is low given depressed demand. The fiscal health of the Eurozone will deteriorate substantially this year and we highlight the areas of concern for debt sustainability amid a surge in unemployment across the region.

To read the full briefing please
If you are not a subscriber, request a free trial of our Global Macro Service by filling out the form below