Global Macro Service > Research Briefings > Italy
As the coronavirus spreads in the Northern part of Italy, the direct impact of the measures taken by to contain the outbreak will be felt in Q1. The disruption to activity will amount to something around 0.1% of Q1 GDP, if measures stay in place for the intended period of one week. Moreover, other factors, such as confidence and supply chain dynamics are likely to amplify the shock. This is another setback for Italy, whose economy will likely see a contraction in 2020.
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