Global Macro Service > Global Macro Themes And Asset Views Chartbooks

Global Macro Themes and Asset Views Chartbook, February 2020

In our global macro chartbook for February, we summarise our views on current global themes and asset markets, and link to our research highlights over the last month. We have lowered our global GDP growth forecast for this year to 2.3%, the weakest of the post-crisis period.

We highlight our research on the impact that the ongoing coronavirus outbreak will have on the global economy. Prior to the outbreak, there were some positives signs for activity and sentiment, but we have had to substantially revise down our short-term forecasts as weaker Chinese imports, less tourism and disruption to global supply chains will take its toll on the rest of the world. We showcase research on the areas that are likely to be the most exposed through industrial channels as China’s dominant manufacturing position means finding substitutes for disrupted suppliers will be difficult.

Away from the coronavirus, we also present extensive research on how a 2020 recession would unfold and the subsequent shape of recovery, the impact that zombie firms are having on productivity and possible policy responses, why the result of US 2020 presidential election hinges on voter turnout and the problems of a one-size-fits-all monetary policy for the ECB.

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