Global Macro Themes and Asset Views Chartbook, January 2020
In our global macro chartbook for January, we summarise our views on current global themes and asset markets, and link to our research highlights over the last month. We forecast that world GDP this year will be the weakest of the post-crisis period at 2.5%.
We highlight our research on the latest positive developments in the global trade war and why we remain relatively cautious on the upside boost for demand and markets. We still believe that US-China trade will remain depressed for years and there is a risk of significant ‘decoupling’. Markets and businesses are optimistic on the outcome of the phase one deal but periods of de-escalation in trade tensions have often been followed by a re-escalation, leaving equity markets particularly vulnerable.
We also present extensive research on the next phase of the Brexit process for the UK, a detailed analysis on why the Japanese yen is yet to soar while ‘King Dollar’ is reigning supreme and the likely policy response to a minimum wage hike in Mexico.